NH Winter/SH Summer 2019-2020 Discussion Thread

the V O I D

Through 27 days, January is averaging 38.9/24.7.

Thats +7.1 f above average. If it held, it would be the 15th warmest January and t he warmest since 2006.

It has not felt like a mild month at all for several reasons

•It’s really only so above average because there’s been no real cold. There’s only been 3 ice days which would be the T-2nd least ever in January. So it’s one of those months that ends up above average due to consist somewhat above average.

•The highest temp is 64. That skews the average a lot. The 2nd warmest day was just 50 (10 c), which is actually several f below the mean January record high. Again, few actual warm days. 

•Snowfall is only slightly below average. The month has 20.2” of snow so far, only 4” below average and still a sizable amount. And it hasn’t been a big storm with otherwise little snow.

There have been 11 days with >1 cm of snow, about average. Snowiest day had just 5” too, adding to the boredom this month.

•There have been 12 days >40, but this is misleading.

-4 were either 40 or 41 f.

That leaves 8 days >45, but this is an exaggeration due to the quirks of midnight-midnight measuring.

-The first 2 came with an overnight warm front. It only lasted a few hours in the middle of the night, but as it was centered around midnight that gave 2 days highs of 47 and 48.

-The 5th came in the early morning after the very warm day. Most of the day was in the 30s.

-The 8th had a high of 45 at midnight and was in the 30s all day after 4 AM.

That leaves only 4 actually mild days. And again, only 1 day above 50 which is below average.

If I hadn’t been paying attention to averages, data and actual temps, I’d have thought this was a very average January. Huge waste of a big positive anomaly. And with no interesting cold, no snowstorms and tons of stability, it has been a very boring month too. 

even a few flowers are coming out in Massachusetts

Black holes are fun brah.

Flowers blooming in Massachusetts in January is pretty grotesque. Luckily I haven't seen many things blooming here. 

Nothing to see here in Europe either if you're looking for any kind of winter weather.

Some figures so far this month vs previous records:

Umeå: -0.5'C (record -0.7'C). It's actually likely Umeå won't even break its January record 

Holmön: 0.6'C (record 0.9'C. Definitely no record)
Stockholm: 4.2'C (record 3.2'C. Definitely new record)
Gothenburg: 5.7'C (record 5.6'C. New record unlikely)
Malmö: 5.2'C (record 4.8'C)
Väderöarna: 6.2'C  (record 5.9'C which is also the national record. Very possible to break the national record.

Start your roflcopters lads....

Hobart's Horrid Heatwave
Joel Pippard, Thursday January 30, 2020 - 13:14 EDT

Hobart is in the midst of an extreme heatwave as hot air from the mainland gets pushed down south.

After temperatures already nudged 30 degrees on Wednesday and only just dipping below 18 degrees overnight, Hobart is in the middle of a firm and sweltering heatwave. By midday on Thursday, the mercury had already hit 34 degrees, a whopping 12 degrees above the January average.

Luckily a weak seabreeze is expected in the city during the mid-afternoon, providing some needed relief. Thanks to this seabreeze and light winds overnight, the temperature is expected to drop to a mild 15 degrees, only three degrees above average.

However, once the hot northerly winds start as the sun rises, the mercury will rise rapidly. A scorching 38 degree day is forecast on Friday, with some models suggesting the mercury may rise above 40 degrees. After temperatures rose to 40.8 degrees on 30th December 2019, it would only be the second time on record that Hobart has seen two 40 degree days in a season, the other occuring in the summer of 1897-98.

Late in the day, thick clouds are expected to move overhead, trapping in the heat. A very hot night will ensue as temperatures will struggle to fall below 22 degrees in the early hours of the morning. This overnight minimum may also challenge the hottest night of 23.9 degrees recorded back in January 2018. However, some rain is expected during the nighttime, possibly making it feel colder than the actual temperature.

If all goes as forecast, the average temperature should be around 26.5 degrees during the 72 hour period. That would make this heatwave the fifth hottest in 137 years of records, behind Feb 1982 (28.4), Jan 1887 (27.6), Jan 1973 (27.0), and Dec 1994 (26.8).

A cool change is due around lunchtime on Saturday, switching the weather from above average to below average temperatures. Monday is only forecast to reach 16 degrees, six degrees below average.

www.weatherzone.com.au/news/-hobarts-horrid-heatwave/530998

Gotta give 'em credit though, noting the below average temps for the rest of the forecast period. 

Looks like the very cold middle of January and the very mild start and end of the month will end up balancing out and being within about one degree Celsius of average. I hope we avoid any serious cold snaps in February.