Spring 2022 NH / Fall 2022 SH Discussion Thread

Chilly spell continues around here. Vancouver airport recorded a low of -1.7c (29f) yesterday morning, the coldest April temp observed at the airport in almost 15 years (-2.1c (28f) on April 1st, 2008).

Wet Season Not Done With The Tropics Just Yet
( Source: Weatherzone )



Heavy rain and storms are affecting the eastern tropics as a burst of instability arrives at the end of the wet season.

April represents the final month of the wet season for northern Australia (which starts in November), and often has a wide variation in rainfall year on year. The monsoon starts to retreat to the north and drier southeasterly winds start to reduce the humidity.

Over the past week, a trough has been lingering over the Kimberley, Top End and Far North Queensland producing isolated showers and storms. Darwin received severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with wind gusts of 85km/h and 72km/h respectively recorded. Another severe storm looked to impact the city on Thursday too, but it weakened just to the east of the city.

Over the last 48 hours, the broad trough has started to consolidate into a stronger trough extending over the eastern Top End and Far North Queensland. In the 24 hours to 9am Saturday, Gove’s 129mm was its heaviest rainfall in the second half of April in 23 years. Garraway Creek’s 147mm and Lockhart River’s 133mm were both their wettest days this late in April for 16 years.

Another weaker trough has also still been lingering over the Kimberley as well. Kalumburu’s 20mm is its heaviest rainfall in the second half of April in 11 years. Fitzroy Crossing recorded its first rain in the second half of April in the last 5 years (even if it was a measly 0.2mm). Overall, nearly 90,000 lightning strikes flashed over the Kimberley skies last night.

Over the coming days, the trough in the east looks to form a tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria. While this is only considered a ‘low chance’ (5-20% chance) of developing into a tropical cyclone from Monday, it will bring a substantial increase in rainfall during the week.

During the week, the tropical low looks to move into the Coral Sea and slowly move down the coast. Areas including Cooktown and Cairns look to see a big increase in rainfall around mid-week. Areas as far south as Proserpine (including Townsville) are also a chance to see some last-ditch rainfall for this wet season.


Image: Forecast 7-day rainfall from ECMWF

While some of this rain is likely to be well received for parts that have had a fairly dry start to 2022, pay attention to the latest advices and warnings for flooding and possible tropical cyclone development for the NT and QLD on Weatherzone.

Pleasant day yesterday with clear skies and a high/low of 68 F/37 F (20 C/3 C). Notably dry and windy.

Mild overnight low of 54 F/12 C. Clouds and humidity are back with a forecast high of 66 F/19 C...showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. 

Averaging 60.7/31.6 for the first half of April (16/0 c), which is 1.5 f below average. 

Very stable too, except for 1 outlier warm day and 1 outlier cold day, all highs have been 50-71 f and all lows 25-44 f with not much day to day variability.

Also extremely dry with just 0.10” (2 mm) of precipitation, making this the driest first half of April since 2007. And no precipitation in the forecast either.

Zero snow as well. In the last 75 years, 0.0” of snow in April has only happened once (in 1992).

Overall the stability, dryness, wind and boringness give the first half of the month an F by our standards. 2nd half looks to be better temp wise—warmer—but still awfully boring.

19 F (-7.2 C) and very frosty here this morning, very nice. Headed up to 38 F (3.3 C) today with mostly cloudy skies and some snow showers moving in later. Beautiful mid-April weather.


Snow is only forecast to be about an inch (2.5 cm) but still nice to see.

Today the low was -13C, it broke the daily record low.

First 30C of the year in Europe yesterday, wonder how it compared to average.

I noticed yesterday that first daffodils were blooming. But in general it is poor because it is too cold. Today's maximum in the station was 12.6c and it was the mildest high of this month, so far. By now, all those weather forecasts that promised warm weather have been deleted - good thing I didn't post them, and there is only random sh... on the horizon now.

Melbourne's Coldest Day Of 2022, One Of Sydney's Warmest
( Source: Weatherzone )


There are dramatic temperature contrasts between Australia's two largest and most populous cities on Tuesday afternoon.

At 1:10 pm as we started writing this story, Melbourne was sitting on just 14.3°C, while Sydney was basking in an unseasonably warm 29.0°C.

In other words, Sydney was more than double Melbourne's temperature at the same moment in the early afternoon.

Yet another way of looking at the difference is that Melbourne was close to its average max temp in the coldest month (July, 13.5°C), while Sydney was considerably warmer than the average max temp in the warmest month (January 26.0°C).

For Melbourne, this definitely looks like being the coldest day of the year to date. The city's lowest maximum so far in 2022 of 17.5°C was recorded yesterday.
Today's Melbourne temp reached 15.8°C just before midday, but it has dropped by nearly two degrees since then, so it seems fairly safe to say that this will be the city’s chilliest day of the year to date.
Up in Sydney, temperatures were uniform across the city, with readings of 29°C or slightly higher from the outer west to the CBD.
Sydney's warmest day of the year to date so far was 31.9°C on February 22. To get within three degrees of the year's hottest temperature to date as late as April 19 is quite remarkable.

So why the contrast?
"A low-pressure system continues to affect Melbourne today with cloud cover and rainfall," Weatherzone meteorologist Yoska Hernandez explains.

"Today will likely be the coldest day of the fortnight, with brisk winds making it feel about 2-3 degrees cooler than actual."

You can see that 2-3 degree differential in the latest Melbourne observations, which you can view on our site here. For example, when it was 14.3°C at 1:10 pm, the "feels like" temp (technically known as the apparent temp) was just 11.7°C.

Meanwhile locals seem to be divided as to whether they're enjoying the early taste of winter or not.
Melbourne's cool temps are not done with yet. Further cloud cover and light showers can be expected in southern Victoria with the passage of a weak cold front and a trough tomorrow and into Thursday.

Settled but relatively cool conditions will then prevail, with daytime temperatures remaining below 20°C until at least this coming Sunday.

As for Sydney, maximum temps will also drop in coming days, as the warm northwesterly winds currently heating up the city move offshore, replaced by winds with a southerly component. A top of 24°C is predicted for Wednesday with max temps in the low twenties for the rest of the week.

If you're dreading the return of yet more showery weather in Sydney, we have moderately bad news for you. After just a light shower or two on Wednesday, showers should be pretty persistent for the rest of the week – although nothing as heavy as the recent deluges is expected.