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Post by Steelernation on Oct 30, 2024 22:57:42 GMT -5
First snow of the season today. Fell briefly around 8 PM and settled on lawns and cars. Maybe a few tenths of an inch accumulation.
High of 46 (8 c) was also the coldest of the season.
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Post by Cadeau on Oct 31, 2024 17:07:59 GMT -5
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Post by Benfxmth on Nov 1, 2024 17:53:46 GMT -5
November is off to one of the balmiest starts ever. Today was 80.7/63.2°F at my PWS, warmest since Oct 5 going by high/low / 2, also an 83°F high at New Bern ASOS which is the highest in November since 2015. No signs of this warm pattern relenting, this first half of November will likely finish off one of the warmest, well above the 90th percentile, right with the 2015/2020/2022 elite club. Not a single below average day in NWS forecast, in fact the coldest day in forecast I write this is 68/52°F this coming Sunday. Too bad this kind of consistent warm anomolies can't happen in summer these days though. CPC outlook for 6-10 and 8-14 days:
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri November 01 2024
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11 2024
Today's model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted amplified
500-hPa height circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions
during the 6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily
on the ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models due to recent
model skill. The resultant manual blend features a more persistent longwave
mid-level trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the Aleutians and
Southwest Alaska. Anomalous ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are
predicted over most of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). A weak trough is forecast
over the southwestern CONUS. Near-normal heights are predicted across Hawaii.
Enhanced chances for near- to above-normal temperatures are strongly favored
beneath the mid-level ridge and above-normal 500-hPa heights across most of the
CONUS during the 6-10 day period. Chances exceed 70% for above-normal
temperatures across parts of the southeastern CONUS and portions of North
Dakota and Minnesota, supported by most of the dynamical temperature forecast
tools. Conversely, below-normal temperatures are favored across parts of the
Four Corners region, southern California, southeastern Nevada, and western
Texas associated with predicted troughing over the region. Predicted troughing
over Alaska favors increased southerly flow developing across much of Mainland
Alaska leading to elevated odds of near- to above-normal temperatures.
Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii, consistent with the GEFS
and ECENS reforecast consolidation.
The 6-10 day precipitation forecast favors below-normal precipitation from
parts of the Northern Plains extending eastward to the Great Lakes and the
Northeast due to the ridging and above-normal 500-hPa heights. Above-normal
precipitation is favored across most of the south-central and southeastern
CONUS, due to a predicted trough over the southwestern CONUS and potential for
return flow moisture advecting northward to the west of surface high pressure
forecast over the Atlantic. Slightly above-normal precipitation is also favored
along parts of the West Coast, supported by most of the dynamical precipitation
forecast tools. In Alaska, the synoptic pattern over the Alaska region tends to
favor stormier conditions over the Gulf of Alaska and above-normal
precipitation, consistent with most dynamical precipitation forecast tools.
Near-normal precipitation is forecast for Hawaii due to the near-normal 500-hPa
heights.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today's 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above-Average, 4 out of 5. Good
agreement among the dynamical tools is offset by a more progressive pattern by
the end of the period.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2024
Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a fairly consistent
500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 6-10 day period across North
America and the surrounding regions. The week-2 manual height blend depicts
anomalous ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the eastern CONUS.
Troughing and negative height anomalies are favored to persist across much of
Alaska and extend southeastward to the northwestern CONUS. Above-normal 500-hPa
heights are forecast over parts of southern California, while near-normal
heights are predicted across Hawaii.
Above-normal temperatures are favored for the central and eastern CONUS during
week-2 beneath the forecast ridge and above-normal 500-hPa heights across the
region with good agreement among the tools, while below-normal temperatures are
favored over parts of southern California and Arizona. Troughing over Alaska
favors increased southwesterly flow over much of the Mainland and Southeast
Alaska leading to increased chances for near- to above-normal temperatures over
eastern Mainland Alaska. Probabilities for near- to below-normal temperatures
are increased across most of western Mainland Alaska and parts of the Aleutians
underneath increased northerly flow on the backside of the trough. Hawaii
continues to tilt towards above-normal temperatures, consistent with the ECENS
and GEFS reforecast consolidation.
Probabilities are slightly elevated for near- to below-normal precipitation
over parts of the Northeast, due to an influence from ridging. Below-normal
precipitation is also favored over parts of the southwestern CONUS associated
with the above-normal 500-hPa heights. Above-normal precipitation is more
likely over the remainder of the CONUS, supported by most of the dynamical
precipitation forecast tools. Troughing over Alaska favors a persistent stormy
pattern across the state, consistent with most of the dynamical precipitation
forecast tools. Near-normal precipitation remains favored across Hawaii under
near-normal 500-hPa Heights.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About-Average, 3 out of 5. due to
good model agreement on a persistent 500-hPa flow pattern across North America,
offset by deamplification of the 500-hPa height pattern.
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Post by Beercules on Nov 1, 2024 21:24:53 GMT -5
I just realised the extraordinary cold overnight. Fucking 5C, that's right, 5C on my PWS.
Life-threatening cold all over SE SA and southern Vic, with lows as 2C. There was even a 0.6C at Pound Creek, near Phillip Island south of Melbourne.
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Post by greysrigging on Nov 2, 2024 1:25:57 GMT -5
Eucla, WA +40c at 10.30am and 23c an hour later !  |
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Post by Beercules on Nov 2, 2024 1:57:06 GMT -5
Eucla, WA +40c at 10.30am and 23c an hour later ! Deplorable. |
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Post by aabc123 on Nov 2, 2024 9:43:35 GMT -5
Today the weather was bad - a storm in the coastal part of the country with broken roofs and power outages and snow in the north east, but in my part the weather was actually less bad than forecasted. A little rain and a little wind. Photos from the afternoon.   ------------------- At the same time in Haapsalu  ..and in Narva, photos from media  |
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Post by srfoskey on Nov 3, 2024 16:40:29 GMT -5
I lost power around 2 this morning from severe storms that later produced a tornado. I just got a text saying power is back on, but I've been in the library the past couple hours. Another line of severe storms is approaching, so I'll wait for those to pass before heading home. Tornado damage about 20 miles (30 km) north of me. This was not the cell that knocked out my power but an earlier one. x.com/JohnHayesNews/status/1853065550320038008 |
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Post by rozenn on Nov 3, 2024 16:59:48 GMT -5
LOL
Day - hi/lo - hours of sun
Oct 29 - 12.4/9.9°C - 0 hours
Oct 30 - 13.4/10.5°C - 0 hours
Oct 31 - 10.8/9.2°C - 0 hours
Nov 1 - 10.5/8.3°C - 0 hours
Nov 2 - 12.2/9.1°C - 0 hours
Nov 3 - 9.6/8.8°C - 0 hours
Not to say the previous few days were exceptionally sunny, with a couple dozen minutes each.
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Post by greysrigging on Nov 3, 2024 21:48:03 GMT -5
Severe heatwave in five Australian states this week ( Source: Weatherzone )  A hot air mass will cause temperatures to soar across large areas of Australia this week, making the northern half of Australia one of the hottest places in the world. November is always a hot time of year in Australia as increasing intensity of the sun enhances solar heating across the continent. This hot weather is most pronounced in central and northern Australia, where exposure to the sun is greater and seasonal monsoon cloud cover is yet to develop, allowing for uninterrupted heating. This makes the northern half of Australia home to some of the highest surface air temperatures in the world at this time of year.  ^^Image: Forecast average temperature for the three-day period beginning on Wednesday, November 6, 2024, according to the GFS model. Australia stands out as having the highest temperatures in the world for this three-day period. Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org A mass of hot air will spread across Australia this week, causing temperatures to climb in parts of every state and territory. As usual, the highest temperatures will occur over the interior and in northern parts of Australia, although even the southern states and some coastal areas will feel the pre-summer warmth. Maximum temperatures should get above 40°C in NSW, Qld, SA, the NT and WA this week and possibly in northwest Vic on Wednesday. If the Mildura area does manage to reach 40°C mid-week, this would be Victoria’s earliest 40°C day since 2009.  ^^Image: Forecast maximum temperature on Wednesday, November 6, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. While hot weather is common in Australia at this time of year, this week’s heat will be above average for this time of year during both days and nights. This will cause severe heatwave conditions in several states, particularly in Qld. In Australia, a heatwave occurs when the maximum and minimum temperatures are unusually hot over a three-day period, compared to the local climate and past weather. Severe heatwaves are likely to be challenging for vulnerable people, including elderly members of the community and those with pre-existing medical conditions.  ^^Image: Heatwave forecast for the three days starting on Monday, November 4.  ^^Image: Heatwave forecast for the three days starting on Thursday, November 7. Some of Australia’s state capital cities will get a taste of this week’s heat as the inland air mass spreads across the country’s south and east. Adelaide will exceed 30°C on Tuesday. Hobart is forecast to reach 29°C on Wednesday. Melbourne should reach the high-twenties on Tuesday and about 33 to 34°C on Wednesday. Canberra should have two days in the low-thirties on Wednesday and Thursday. Sydney is tipped to reach the low-thirties on Thursday and high-twenties on Friday. Brisbane could reach 30 to 33°C every day this week, with most overnight minimums also staying up in the low-twenties. Darwin forecast to reach 34c-35c for the next 10 days and overnight mins 26c-27c.   |
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Post by Beercules on Nov 3, 2024 23:14:40 GMT -5
cold and gay after those couple days here
mid 20's shit for a week or more
downgrades a-comin
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Post by Beercules on Nov 4, 2024 4:27:27 GMT -5
wednesday got downgraded from 40C to 34C. pathetic  Lame ass mid 20's for the whole week after too |
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Post by Beercules on Nov 4, 2024 20:38:00 GMT -5
already full overcast and only 26C at midday. Fail no. 1 already locked in
back to usual dumb crummer c u n t shit
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Post by greysrigging on Nov 5, 2024 1:30:48 GMT -5
Spring extremes in AU today:  |
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Post by greysrigging on Nov 5, 2024 2:31:42 GMT -5
Some huge heat anomalies in Central Australia over the first 5 days of November: Jervois, NT:  Yulara ( Ayres Rock ), NT:  Birdsville, QLD:  Oodnadatta, SA:  Roebourne, WA:  |
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Post by Beercules on Nov 5, 2024 2:36:22 GMT -5
and ofcourse none of it makes it here usual shit fucking usualism at it's most typical |
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Post by Beercules on Nov 5, 2024 6:10:31 GMT -5
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Post by tommyFL on Nov 5, 2024 10:15:10 GMT -5
New record warmest November low of 76 F at the COOP station this morning:  |
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Post by greysrigging on Nov 5, 2024 23:02:38 GMT -5
Roebourne and Birdsville the last 5 days   |
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Post by CRISPR on Nov 6, 2024 14:45:34 GMT -5
*Grumble* *Grumble *Grumble* *Grumble*   |
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Lived:
Residence:
Lame ass mid 20's for the whole week after too 
