2017-18 Winter Discussion Thread (Northern Hemisphere)

The first ice road from the mainland to an island, Vormsi, was just opened. Also, it's now legal to use summer tires. Strange combination.

and NWS Albany



looks like more rain east of the Hudson? Wonder if the Hudson Valley is affecting how much the storm cools the air (or brings in cold). Does it switch to rain, or start as snow in the Berkshires and then switch to snow? Checking… NWS has Berkshires at 2500 feet starting as snow then rain midday Friday. North Adams below at 600 feet snow mixed with rain during Friday but starting as rain overnight. NWS doesn't seem very sure



NWS Albany says little about the Berkshires as it's on the edge of their region

As coastal low becomes a
near meteorological bomb through the daylight hours, this too
will assist with further cooling of the column as we watch the
snow levels drop. As low level flow magnitudes increase from the
east then northeast, portions of the Catskills will have a
prolonged period of upslope during a time when thermal profiles
are cooling. Its these areas we have high confidence of a
significant snowfall where we will place Winter Storm Warnings.
For the Mohawk Valley into the Adirondacks, still some question
on precipitation amounts (especially into the Mohawk Valley)
as seen in the QPF fields where variable remains and thermal
profiles where we will keep the watch in place. Where we will
expand the watch is into the southern Greens and Berks as the
higher terrain and lower thresholds (6"/12hrs) along with
coordination efforts at this time. Snow ratios with this event
appear to be close to 10:1 with a heavier/wet snow.

By late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, thermal profiles
continue to cool as we should see a transition to mainly snow
across most of the region. At this time, the coastal low is
filling as it tracks slowly east and southeast.

NWS Boston says the hills should get heavy, wet snow mixed with rain


Very tricky forecast given model spread on axis of heaviest qpf
which will impact location of dynamical and diabatic cooling. Heavy
snow threat not necessarily tied to high terrain as area of heaviest
qpf will flip rain to snow as vigorous upward vertical motion will
cool column along with diabatic cooling from melting snow. However
colder temps in the high terrain will aid in snow accumulating.
Given these parameters have hoisted a Winter Storm Watch for the
east slopes of the Berks and Worcester Hills to convey this snow
potential. Now while our snow totals are less than Winter Storm
Criteria (6+ inches), it only takes 3 to 4 inches of heavy wet snow
to bring down tree limbs resulting in isolated power outages.

Certainly set for the fourth consecutive low beneath -10°C, something only reserved for the gravest cold waves. It'll most likely end up being five consecutive -10°C nights, which is astonishing this late in the season.

I’m supposed to get 6-10” (15-25 cm) of snow overnight! Hoping for a day off tomorrow...

This February-March is eerily similar to last year:

-Average first half of February both years
-warmth starts on the 14th this year and 18th last year
-extreme warmth to end the month
-1 day that either should have (2017) or did (2018) exceed 70
-1st and 2nd warmest February’s on record
-Warmth abruptly ends with a final warm, record setting day (March 1 last year and February 28 this year)
-Cold start to March
-Big snowstorm in early March 

I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if this is an above average March but I’m 90% sure it won’t be.

Yup, the two months are almost a carbon copy! A chilly first half, epic warmth starting up midway, record warmth from 20-25th, and a huge snowstorm and cold wave the moment the calendar flips to March


I'll also be really happy if this March ends up above average. But there are three certainties in life in Northeast US; death, taxes, and below-average Marches...

86?

MIA only got to 82F today and only 79F here. Pretty dissapointing for a day that was supposed to be so hot lol

I wasn’t questioning you, just surprised lol.

Forecast low of 45F tonight and 40F tomorrow night. It hasn't been below 51F since Feb 13 over two weeks ago. 

Normal low for today's date is 44F... 

Cape Cod forecast has wind gusts up to 70 mph tomorrow. Coastal Flood Warning

COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to major coastal flooding in much
of the warning area with severe damage to vulnerable shoreline
structures likely. Some vulnerable homes along the immediate
shoreline may be destroyed from the combination of high water
and severe wave action. There will be widespread inundation of
coastal roads and basements with life-threatening inundation
depths above 3 feet in some locations, especially where wave
overwash is involved. Many neighborhoods may be at risk of
being cut off for an extended time. Flood waters will be
extremely slow to recede after the late Friday morning high
tide. This is a very dangerous storm, and evacuation of some
neighborhoods will likely be necessary.